May 18, 2012

What’s more important…? How much of the RBA’s 50 basis point cash rate cut the banks have passed on or which bank actually has the lowest…

There has been a great deal of hype around how Australia’s banks are deviating from the historic norm of adjusting their mortgage rates in line with the Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate moves.  Two weeks ago, when the RBA slashed the cash rate by 50 basis points and the Big 4 banks passed on only 37 basis points (on average), the public outcry went up a notch. I can absolutely understand that there would be a reaction. Anyone with a mortgage is going to be very interested to know about changes to their cost of servicing that debt

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What’s more important…? How much of the RBA’s 50 basis point cash rate cut the banks have passed on or which bank actually has the lowest…

PROPERTY REPORT – June 2012

It’s all about resources and infrastructure..

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PROPERTY REPORT – June 2012

Super change to encourage property investment

In the days following last week’s Federal Budget the main debate appeared to be driven by political infighting. However as the headlines start to settle I would like to re-visit my earlier comments in particular how changes to super contributions and taxes might be expected to impact the appetite for property among private investors.

The budget also anticipated further cuts to interest rates, and such an outcome would further add to the appeal of property investment. But I will return to interest rates shortly.

First up the history of concessional contributions is mixed and the use of the Federal Budget to vary this area of policy is not uncommon.

One of the most notable policies meant that between 10 May 2006 and 30 June 2007, you could contribute up to $1 million of non-concessional contributions to your super fund. This figure looks very generous, as the current budget introduces a cap on eligible contributions for the next 2 years. If you are 50-plus the cap will be reduced from $50,000 to $25,000.

And while a $1 million contribution may appear overly generous for anyone on an average income, the cap has been on a downward trend from $100,000 in 2007 and 2008 to $50,000 over the 3 years 2009-2011 and now to $25,000 in 2012.

It had generally been anticipated that with some restrictions on the size of individual super balances, the $50,000 cap, which has been in place since 2009 would be retained. Now that cap has been delayed for 2 years. The other change is that taxpayers with an income of $300,000 and more will have to pay 30% on super contributions up from the current 15%. They do retain the 15% rate up to $25,000.

While it is true that the changes only impact high-income brackets I feel that these changes feed the perception that superannuation policy is an area where policy is more or less forever changing.

Investors dislike change and if you fit this income and age bracket then other investments like property start to look very attractive. Even more so when the impact of negative gearing is factored in, plus there are the advantages flowing from current low stock levels, low vacancy rates and when it comes to creating wealth, property still looks good in terms of potential capital gain.

For all of these reasons, if your have extra cash available that might have gone to super, then the property alternative looks attractive. There was at least a general indication that in 2007, with $1 million cap about to end that some investors left property so now the reverse trend should not be that surprising.

If we now take a general look at the potential impact on interest rates both the Federal Government and opposition appear to have a steadfast commitment to cut spending. The risk might be that a return to surplus will dampen economic growth and so further fuel the need for more cuts to interest rates.

If there is slower growth where might this leave the housing industry?

There was no direct stimulus in the budget and so possibly any steps to boost a pick-up in construction will have to rest with the states. However states some face their own budget deficits and current incentives are about to expire.

It appears that a boost to housing construction may not be on the horizon. However the move back to a budget surplus appears to be the right message given current international settings and this should be a positive for investors.

After almost a week since the budget was announced in detail, I can see some key areas to keep on watch.

Homesales.com.au launches Investment Property Search

Homesales.com.au has launched ‘Investment Property Search’, a new free service specifically aimed at property investors.

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Homesales.com.au launches Investment Property Search

Negative gearing the choice of the nation

The Australian Tax Office (ATO) recently released taxation statistics for the 2009/10 financial year.  The data had a lot of good information, some of which was touched on in last week’s blog however, this week we will be specifically looking at rental income and deductions associated with property investment. Over the 2009/10 financial year there were 1,751,679 individuals that received rental income (owned investment property).  The number had increased by 3.5% from the previous financial year.  Of these 1,751,679 individuals, 1,110,922 individuals or 63% made a loss on their rental income; the remaining 37% of individuals turned a profit on their rental properties. Of those 63% of investors that had made a loss on their rental income, the typical loss was $9,132 over the year or $176/week.  The most concerning sign is that individuals that earn less than $6,000 a year are carrying a loss of $207/week with only those on an annual salary of more than $180,000 carrying a greater loss each week ($399).  It is difficult to determine what this actually means however, you could assume that a portion of those on incomes of less than $6,000 p.a.

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Negative gearing the choice of the nation

In a first, a major portal puts listings in Chinese

It seems that Chinese buyers have the buying power in today’s market. That includes Chinese-speaking Australians who hail from China and other parts of Asia Pacific. It also includes those who still reside China or other parts of Asia and want to buy property in the Asia-Pacific’s most stable, advanced country.

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In a first, a major portal puts listings in Chinese

The big end of town… Australia’s wealthiest (and poorest) postcodes

The Australian Taxation Office has recently released their annual set of Taxation Statistics  ( you can see the whole report here ) for the 2009/10 financial year.  This is always a fascinating read (shame about the time it takes to be published though), particularly the tables which provide an insight about average taxable income across each of Australia’s postcodes. I’ve provided a summary of the top earning postcodes below across both the capital cities and regional markets as well as those capital city postcodes where mean incomes are the lowest.  We’ve also put together a bunch of thematic maps which are probably the best way to highlight the wealth trends across the capital cities. The top earners are the usual suspects, mostly clustered around Sydney Harbour, the Western Suburbs of Perth and a few bayside/inner eastern suburbs of Melbourne.  Nationally there are 47 postcodes with a mean taxable income of more than $100,000; that’s 11 more than recorded across the previous financial year.  More than half (57%) of these high income postcodes are located in Sydney, 21% are in Melbourne and 15% are in Perth.  Canberra and Brisbane showed only one postcode each recording a mean taxable income of at least $100,000, while the only regional postcode made the high earners list:  3441 which is home to the Macedon Ranges suburb of Mount Macedon

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The big end of town… Australia’s wealthiest (and poorest) postcodes

Welcome back below average mortgage rates

With the low CPI reading earlier this week, a drop in the cash rate next Tuesday is pretty much a done deal.   The question is now will the RBA cut the cash rate by 25 or 50 basis point?  According to financial market expectations (based on the  ASX cash rate futures yield curve ), the cash rate is likely to fall by 50 basis points by the June RBA meeting

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Welcome back below average mortgage rates

Vacant land market weakest in more than a decade

The Housing Industry Association (HIA) in association with RP Data released the December 2011 quarter Residential Land Report this week and it made for pretty sobering reading.  As the report states, over the past five quarters land sales have bounced around the bottom rather than showing any sign of improvement.  Over the quarter, residential land sales across the six mainland states fell by 0.8% with 10,479 sales.  The level of sales activity over the December quarter was 2.7% lower than over the previous year.

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Vacant land market weakest in more than a decade

The Reserve Bank is in a real bind

Following a raft of economic data which has come out recently I felt it was important to reflect on this data.  It is obvious that the Reserve Bank (RBA) is currently in a very tough predicament. While much of the data is proving to be quite negative and providing a clear case for interest rate cuts, every now and then other pieces of data highlight that perhaps things aren’t so bad.

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The Reserve Bank is in a real bind